On 2 July 2026, European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius called for a significant increase in the EU's multiannual financial framework (MFF) to at least 2% of gross national income (GNI), arguing that current spending levels are inadequate given the threat of war with Russia. Speaking at the Annual Budget Conference, Kubilius warned that failure to invest now could force the EU budget to balloon to 12-15% of GDP in the event of a conflict, drawing parallels to US budget history during the Civil War and World Wars.
Kubilius praised Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin's proposal for a fivefold increase in defence and space spending in the next MFF, but stressed that the overall EU budget—currently around 1.28% of GNI—remains too low. He pushed back against calls from 'frugal' member states to cut it to 1%, arguing that war requires not only defence expenditure but also spending on civil protection, military mobility, and economic stabilisation. The Commissioner did not present a detailed policy plan with specific numerical targets beyond the 2% GNI goal, nor did he outline a timeline or institutional mechanism for achieving such an increase. His remarks remained at the level of a broad call for action, urging a shift in mindset among member states.
Kubilius also highlighted the economic benefits of EU-level defence spending, claiming it could save taxpayers money. He cited German experts from the Sparta 2.0 group, who estimate that replacing heavy equipment and strategic enablers withdrawn by transatlantic partners will cost €500 billion—far more than the roughly €60-70 billion earmarked for defence in the next MFF. However, he noted that member states are expected to spend around €7 trillion on defence over the next decade if they raise spending to 3.5% of GDP, and that joint procurement could reduce equipment costs by 30%, saving up to €1 trillion. To incentivise such collective action, Kubilius argued, the EU needs greater financial firepower at the central level.
The speech marks a significant push by the Commissioner for a paradigm shift in EU fiscal policy, moving from austerity towards preparedness spending. The proposal would increase the EU budget's share of GNI by over 50%, a major expansion that would likely face resistance from net-contributor member states. If implemented, it would strengthen the EU's role in defence procurement and reduce duplication among national armed forces, potentially lowering costs for taxpayers. However, it would also increase the EU budget's size and the financial burden on member states, particularly those already facing fiscal constraints. The policy orientation is clearly towards greater EU integration in defence and fiscal matters, with Kubilius framing increased spending as prudent risk management rather than mere expenditure. The speech did not address how such a budget increase would be financed—whether through higher national contributions, new EU taxes, or borrowing—leaving key details unspecified. The importance of the speech is moderate, as it reflects a senior Commissioner's position but does not represent a formal proposal or decision by the College of Commissioners or the Council.