On 13 May 2026, European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius called on the Eastern Flank countries to take a strategic lead in four key areas: the future of European defence architecture, defence industry, policy towards Ukraine, and long-term strategy towards Russia. Speaking at an event on 'European Union Defence Initiatives: The Eastern Flank within a 360° Security Approach', Kubilius argued that the region must move beyond its traditional frontier role and become intellectually and politically active in shaping Europe's collective defence transformation.
Kubilius described the current shift from transatlantic collective defence to European collective defence as a 'major tectonic shift' occurring once in a century. He urged Eastern Flank countries to present their own ideas on operationalising Article 42.7 of the TEU, the European pillar of NATO, and the creation of a European Defence Union and a European Security Council. The Commissioner noted that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had recently signalled that existing doctrines and institutions are no longer fit for purpose, and that German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul had presented a German vision for change. Kubilius asked: 'Where is the similar vision from the Eastern Flank countries?'
On defence industry, Kubilius stressed that Russia still heavily outproduces Europe in missiles, drones, tanks, and artillery ammunition, creating a 'permanent temptation for Putin to test Europe'. He argued that the Eastern Flank must lead the question of how to outproduce Russia, especially as US weapon production may be diverted to replenish American stockpiles after the Iran war. Europe must also replace strategic enablers previously provided by the US and produce enough weapons for Ukraine. Kubilius highlighted that Ukraine's defence industry increased production 50-fold from €1 billion in 2022 to €50 billion in 2026, and proposed that the Eastern Flank become a region for expanding Ukrainian defence capabilities, eventually integrating them into a European Defence Single Market to create a powerful 'Europe's Arsenal'.
Regarding Ukraine, Kubilius called for shifting EU assistance from a 'support as long as it takes' survival approach to a 'Ukraine's Prevailing Plan' aimed at enabling Ukraine to prevail on the frontlines. He urged the Eastern Flank to promote integration of Ukraine's and Europe's defence capabilities, including pushing for Ukraine's membership in a European Defence Union if NATO and EU membership remain distant. He set a timeline for this goal to be realised during the Lithuanian Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2027.
On Russia, Kubilius warned against temptations to normalise relations with Putin's Russia, noting signals from the US and some European leaders. He argued that the Eastern Flank should push for a long-term EU strategy that conditions normalisation on Russia's transformation back to a normal state. The strategy should be based on two principles: the success of Ukraine can inspire Russian people, and the EU should promise conditional normalisation only if Russia returns to normality. Kubilius concluded that the Eastern Flank must be ambitious and smart, focusing not only on itself but on the full 360-degree spectrum of challenges.
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