Renewable electricity saved EU consumers an estimated EUR 29 billion in wholesale electricity costs during the first 16 weeks of 2026, while gas price volatility added EUR 13 billion to the bill, according to a briefing published by the European Environment Agency (EEA) on 2 July 2026. The analysis, covering data from January to mid-April, shows that renewables acted as the most effective shock absorber against external fossil fuel price spikes, with the EU average wholesale electricity price reaching EUR 98/MWh, 13% above a scenario with stable gas prices. The briefing warns that delays in renewable deployment would lock in gas dependence and expose EU countries to continued volatility, projecting that by 2030, a stalled renewables scenario could drive wholesale prices 125% higher than a scenario with accelerated deployment.
The briefing draws on energy market data for the first 16 weeks of 2026 and quantitative modelling to assess how gas price volatility feeds into EU electricity prices. It notes that the EU remains vulnerable to external fossil fuel supply shocks, with imports accounting for around 85% of gas and 97% of oil products consumed in 2024. The restriction of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel attack on Iran in March 2026 disrupted international oil and gas markets, with the surge in fossil commodity prices unlikely to subside in the short term. The EEA highlights that gas-fired power plants often set the marginal price in EU electricity markets due to the merit order system, meaning that even a small share of gas generation can raise prices across the market.
Italy and Poland were among the most exposed, with gas setting electricity prices in 66% and 63% of hours respectively, driving persistently high wholesale prices. In contrast, Spain, where low-carbon sources generated 79% of electricity and gas only 16%, saw an average price of EUR 43/MWh. The briefing attributes these differences to contrasting energy policy choices over the past two decades, with Spain expanding wind and solar while Italy's electricity production stagnated and relied on imports.
one with stable gas prices (SC1) and one rolling back the energy mix to 2010 levels with less renewables (SC2). Under SC2, the EU wholesale electricity bill would have been EUR 107.7 billion, 37% higher than the observed EUR 78.8 billion. Looking to 2030, under a high-renewables scenario (68% of generation), average wholesale prices could fall to EUR 71/MWh, while under a stalled scenario they could surge to EUR 160/MWh. The briefing concludes that the pace of renewable rollout is a political choice with direct economic consequences, and calls for enabling policies to keep pace with changes in the electricity mix, including grid investments, storage, and demand response.
The analysis impacts several stakeholders. EU consumers and businesses benefit from lower electricity prices when renewables displace gas, but face continued volatility if deployment lags. EU energy producers, particularly gas-fired plant operators, face reduced revenues as renewables push gas out of the merit order. National governments must balance the upfront costs of renewable expansion against long-term savings and energy security. EU regulatory bodies, including the European Commission and ACER, are prompted to accelerate enabling policies such as grid upgrades and market reforms to unlock the full price benefits of renewables.