Setting the Stage for Baltic Defence At the "Defending Baltics: War Lessons From Ukraine" conference, Commissioner Andrius Kubilius underscored the critical need for Baltic States to prepare for potential future aggression, referencing intelligence that Putin might test NATO Article 5 within the next 2-4 years. Kubilius explicitly focused on strategic questions regarding Baltic self-defence in conjunction with EU and NATO, emphasizing that Baltic readiness remains a pressing concern. He notably avoided detailed commentary on existing EU defence tools like ReArmEU or SAFE loans, turning instead to larger strategic themes and the integration of lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Learning from Ukraine’s Battlefield Experience Commissioner Kubilius raised several pointed questions about the Baltic region's preparedness and ability to learn from Ukraine's experience with modern warfare—particularly the shift towards drone and missile warfare. Pointing to the UK’s strategic review as an example, he questioned whether Baltic States have conducted similar assessments to adapt to future combat realities. He raised concerns about the pace of adaptation in detecting drones and stressed the need to build dynamic, integrated defence ecosystems, inspired by Ukraine’s innovative defence industry. He also introduced a forthcoming EU Defence Transformation Roadmap aimed at this transformation.
Regional Cooperation and Integration Kubilius advocated for regional collaboration through initiatives like the Eastern Flank Watch project, involving Baltic States, Poland, and Ukraine. He argued that collective, frontline regional defence capabilities could be pivotal before NATO intervention. This approach, he suggested, would allow knowledge-sharing across Europe and enable integrated defence with Ukraine, which he positioned as essential for actualising EU defence readiness before 2030.
A Battle-Tested Ukrainian Army as a Security Guarantee A highlight of Kubilius's speech was a strategic proposal to consider a permanent Ukrainian military presence alongside NATO forces in the Baltic region. Citing Ukraine’s combat experience and the scale of Russian drone warfare, he suggested that integrating Ukrainian forces could add a layer of security guarantees beyond NATO’s Article 5 and the EU’s Article 42(7). Such a proposal signals a move toward deeper regional defence integration and a recalibration of security guarantees on the Eastern frontier.
Policy Implications and Stakeholder Impact Kubilius’s speech contains concrete policy orientations rather than detailed plans or numerical targets. The emphasis lies on increasing cooperation within the Eastern Flank, strengthening regional military capabilities, and fostering dynamic defence ecosystems inspired by Ukraine’s operational model.
For Baltic States and frontier countries, this could imply greater military interoperability and joint strategic planning. For Ukraine, it suggests deepened integration with EU security structures, reinforcing its role as a frontline defence partner.
EU defence bodies may face new operational and coordination challenges given the proposed integrations, while NATO and member states might reconsider existing force deployments and readiness standards. The proposal balances increasing regional solidarity against potential complexities in multinational defence cooperation.
In sum, Commissioner Kubilius’s speech articulates a forward-looking vision where Baltic defence is inseparable from Ukrainian experience and broader Eastern Flank collaboration, signaling a nuanced shift in EU security paradigms towards integrated, frontier-based defence.
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