Commisioner Andrius Kubilius delivered a keynote at the European Defence Agency Annual Conference on 22 January 2025, outlining a strategic shift toward intensified European defence coordination and industrial investment to deter Russian aggression. His speech contextualized the EU's evolving defence posture against the backdrop of 20 years of the European Defence Agency’s existence and emerging geopolitical threats.
Historical Concerns and Urgency for Increased Defence
Kubilius warned of escalating "new generation warfare" from Russia involving hybrid, cyber, and military attacks, asserting that Russia’s war economy now channels 9% of its GDP to defence—far outpacing the EU average of 1.9%. Citing Lithuania's commitment to allocate 5-6% of its GDP for defence, he characterized current EU defence spending as insufficient. Drawing parallels to Jean Monnet’s mobilisation of the US defence industry during WWII, Kubilius urged a similar urgent, collective European mobilization.
Concrete Proposals and Policy Orientations
The commissioner proposed practical steps including joint EU procurement programs, increased defence R&D, and enhanced production capacities within Europe to counteract past reliance on third-country suppliers. He emphasized the need to accelerate capability targets from 2044 to 2030, align with NATO priorities, and implement the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) swiftly. Kubilius also highlighted successes such as the European Defence Fund and the ASAP initiative, which increased artillery shell production for Ukraine from 300,000 in 2023 to 2 million in 2025.
Impact on Stakeholders and Political Cleavages
EU Member States stand to gain from lower costs and faster delivery of defence capabilities through aggregated demand, while maintaining sovereignty over capability choices. Defence industries can anticipate greater clarity and long-term contracts, encouraging expansion. EU taxpayers face expanded financial commitments but with the rationale of averting far greater war costs. The European Defence Agency’s role is strengthened, coordinating research and capability convergence. This approach increases EU’s regulatory and funding powers in defence but maintains Member States’ control over strategic decisions, reflecting a balance between integration and national sovereignty.
Kubilius’s speech thus advocates a significant pivot towards deeper EU defence integration via industrial cooperation and increased spending, aiming to reconcile capability gaps and face the “existential threat” posed by Russia, while navigating the sensitive politics of preserving Member State authority.