On 26 June 2026, the European Commission published its 2026 Convergence Report, concluding that none of the five assessed Member States with a derogation — Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden — fulfil all conditions for adopting the euro. The report, transmitted to the Council and the European Parliament, evaluates legal compatibility and the four convergence criteria (price stability, public finances, exchange rate stability, long-term interest rates) against a backdrop of the Middle East conflict (outbreak 28 February 2026) causing major energy supply disruption and Russia's continued war against Ukraine.
All five countries fail on legal compatibility with Article 131 TFEU (central bank independence, monetary financing prohibition, Eurosystem integration) and on exchange rate stability, as none participate in ERM II. Only Czechia and Sweden meet the price stability criterion (average inflation 1.9% and 1.8% respectively, below the 2.7% reference value) and the public finances criterion (neither subject to an excessive deficit procedure; Czechia's deficit 2.1% of GDP in 2025, Sweden's surplus 0.6% of GDP in 2025). Hungary, Poland and Romania fail on both price stability and public finances: Hungary's average inflation 4.1%, Poland's 4.0%, Romania's 5.1% (reference value 2.7%); all three are subject to an excessive deficit procedure (Hungary and Poland since July 2024, Romania since 2020). On long-term interest rates, only Sweden fulfils the criterion (average rate 2.6% against a 5.1% reference value); Czechia (4.2%), Hungary (6.8%), Poland (5.8%) and Romania (6.9%) all exceed the threshold.
The inflation reference value was calculated using Cyprus (0.9%), France (1.2%) and Denmark (1.6%) as the three best-performing Member States. The interest rate reference value used Cyprus (3.1%), France (3.5%) and Denmark (2.6%). The exchange rate assessment period ran from 18 June 2024 to 17 June 2026, with a data cut-off date of 17 June 2026.
Stakeholder impact For the five assessed Member States, the report confirms no immediate prospect of euro adoption, maintaining their derogation status. This spares their national central banks and finance ministries the costs of transitioning to the euro, but also denies them the potential benefits of lower transaction costs and enhanced credibility. For EU institutions, the report underscores persistent legal and economic divergence among Member States, complicating further euro-area enlargement. For businesses and investors in the assessed countries, continued national currencies mean ongoing exchange rate risk and higher borrowing costs (especially in Hungary, Poland and Romania where long-term interest rates exceed the reference value). For the euro area as a whole, the absence of new entrants avoids short-term adjustment pressures but delays the political and economic integration that a larger eurozone would bring.
The Council is expected to discuss the report in the coming months, potentially adopting conclusions on the findings. The next convergence reports are due at least every two years, or on request from a Member State.