The Council of the European Union has endorsed the European Commission's opinion that an excessive deficit exists in Bulgaria, following the Commission's assessment published on 26 June 2026. The opinion concludes that Bulgaria's general government deficit, which reached 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and is projected at 4.1% of GDP in 2026, exceeds the 3% Treaty reference value and is not temporary, triggering the excessive deficit procedure under Article 126(6) TFEU.
The Commission's assessment, based on Eurostat data from 22 April 2026 and the Spring 2026 Forecast, notes that while the 2025 deficit was considered exceptional due to a Council-activated national escape clause on 8 July 2025 for defence spending increases (2025-2028), the projected 2026 excess is not fully explained by defence expenditure. Therefore, the exemption under Article 2(5) of Regulation (EU) No 1467/97 does not apply. Bulgaria's general government debt stood at 29.9% of GDP in 2025, well below the 60% reference value, so the debt criterion is fulfilled. The Commission assessed relevant factors as aggravating, and the Economic and Financial Committee, in its opinion of 11 June 2026, aligned with the Commission's assessment.
the Council will adopt a recommendation under Article 126(7) TFEU, setting a deadline for Bulgaria to correct the excessive deficit. Bulgaria will be required to implement corrective measures, likely affecting fiscal policy and public spending. The procedure impacts Bulgarian taxpayers, who may face spending cuts or tax increases, and the national government, which must balance fiscal consolidation with defence investment. EU institutions will monitor compliance, while investors and credit rating agencies will watch for Bulgaria's commitment to fiscal discipline. The decision also signals the EU's enforcement of fiscal rules, with potential implications for other member states under surveillance.