A Vision for the Next European Budget European Commissioner Piotr Serafin addressed the Lithuanian Seimas outlining a bold proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) running to 2035. His speech emphasized a strategic recalibration of EU funding priorities amid geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine, technological shifts, and trade challenges. Serafin’s vision centers on striking a 'balance' between maintaining traditional cohesion and agricultural budgets while significantly ramping up investment in defence, security, competitiveness, and border management.
National and Regional Partnership Plans At the core of Serafin’s blueprint are the National and Regional Partnership Plans, an integrated framework designed to coordinate reforms and investments with a combined envelope of €865 billion, pooling resources from cohesion, agriculture, and other key funding streams. Unlike the current fragmented approach, this plan promises coherent collaboration between the Commission, member states, local authorities, and stakeholders. For farmers, €300 billion is ringfenced to safeguard income and bolster environmental measures, with streamlined funding rules reducing administrative burdens.
Elevation of Security and Defence Budgets Serafin highlights a tripling of funds to €34 billion for migration and border management, doubling financing for agencies like Frontex and Europol, reflecting increased responsibilities on member states at the EU’s external borders. Defence funding sees a fivefold increase to €131 billion within a €410 billion Competitiveness Fund, which also supports innovation in clean tech, digital, biotech, food security, and space. An immediate €150 billion SAFE instrument is introduced to accelerate defence investments, underlining the urgency of strengthening European defence capabilities.
Infrastructure and External Policy The Connecting Europe Facility is set to receive €18 billion for military mobility, a tenfold increase to speed troop and equipment movements, which simultaneously supports market connectivity and security. The Global Europe Fund’s allocation at €200 billion aims at faster action on enlargement, humanitarian aid, and partnerships, with notable emphasis on supporting Ukraine beyond the MFF ceilings by €100 billion for recovery and integration efforts.
Financial and Legislative Reforms Serafin proposes ending outdated budgetary corrections and introducing new revenue streams to stabilize national contributions through 2027 without increasing burdens, reinforcing financial transparency. A crisis mechanism is suggested to provide swift EU support during major shocks, complementing long-term investment certainty. The rule of law remains a funding condition, with novel conditionality enabling fund reallocation to civil society and media if violations persist.
Political and Stakeholder Implications This proposal signifies a shift towards increased EU budgetary power through integrated plans and funds focused on security and technological competitiveness, balancing EU integration against member states' budgetary sovereignty. Farmers benefit from protected incomes and simplified rules, while border states like Lithuania gain enhanced resources addressing geopolitical realities. National authorities face increased conditionality linked to rule of law adherence. EU regulatory bodies will experience both expanded budgets and responsibilities, notably in defence and migration management. Businesses in tech and defence stand to gain from amplified funding, but may face heightened regulatory expectations and competitive pressures.
Serafin frames the MFF not just as numbers but as a strategic 'budget for an independent Europe,' reflecting historical and geopolitical imperatives. His proposals foreground strengthened EU powers in finance and security, while asserting the continuity of cohesion policies and agricultural support. This represents a calculated political choice that may redefine resource allocation and institutional roles within the Union in the coming decades.
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