On 23 June 2026, European Commissioner Andrius Kubilius presented a 10-point vision for Russia's future at the second edition of the Brussels Dialogue, arguing that the ongoing war against Ukraine, now in its fifth year, offers an opportunity for Russia to transform itself back to normality. Kubilius stressed that such transformation cannot happen while Vladimir Putin remains in power and warned against a premature "Reset 2.0" with Russia without conditions.
Kubilius described the war as a tragedy for both Ukraine and Russia, noting that Russia's aggressive policies are leading to a deeply negative long-term trajectory. He cited Jared Diamond's book "Upheaval" to argue that national crises can catalyse positive transformation, as seen in Japan, Finland, and Germany. However, he made clear that normalisation of relations with the West depends on Russia meeting specific conditions: a just peace in Ukraine, an end to neo-imperial wars against neighbours, and an end to the "total war" against its own people.
The Commissioner identified the biggest danger as a post-war scramble by Western leaders — starting with the United States but also some European leaders — to re-establish good relations with Putin without any conditions on Russia's transformation. Such a reset, he warned, would lead to worse outcomes for both Europe and Russia itself. He argued that Europe has a vital strategic interest in Russia's transformation, as it is the only path to sustainable long-term peace on the continent.
Kubilius proposed that Europe should develop a strategy for future normalised relations with a transformed Russia, to show the Russian people and elite an alternative to Putin's path of tragedy and degradation. He emphasised that EU support for Ukraine — through military assistance and euro-integration — is the most important instrument to inspire Russia's transformation. The speech concluded with a call for European and Russian democrats to unite behind the conclusion that Russia's tragedy has one name — Putin — and that transforming Russia back to normality is more important for Europe's security than any new reset with the current regime.
The speech contained no concrete policy proposals, numerical targets, or institutional mechanisms, remaining at the level of declarative vision and calls for action. It shifts the EU's posture towards Russia in a more assertive direction, demanding internal political change as a precondition for normalisation, while offering a conciliatory vision of future cooperation if that change occurs.