On 26 May 2026, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published a technical report outlining a method to derive species-specific relative weights for wild birds in a spatio-temporal risk model for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Europe. The report aims to improve risk assessments by accounting for differences in species' roles in virus transmission, targeting veterinary authorities and epidemiologists.
The document, produced by EFSA's Animal and Plant Health Unit, is a technical report that provides a framework for weighting wild bird species based on factors such as population density, migration patterns, and susceptibility to HPAI. It is not a regulatory guideline but a methodological tool intended to enhance the accuracy of existing risk models.
Policy orientations and trade-offs The report emphasizes a data-driven approach to risk modeling, which could lead to more targeted surveillance and control measures. However, it also highlights trade-offs: focusing on high-risk species may improve efficiency but could overlook lower-risk species that might become relevant under changing conditions. The method relies on available data, which may be incomplete for some species, introducing uncertainty.
Impact on stakeholders - Veterinary authorities: Gain a refined tool for allocating resources to high-risk areas and species, potentially reducing outbreak costs. - Poultry industry: Benefits from earlier and more precise risk warnings, but may face increased scrutiny in regions with high-risk wild bird populations. - Ornithologists and conservation groups: May be concerned if risk weighting leads to culling or disturbance of certain species, though the report does not prescribe management actions. - EFSA and EU risk assessors: The method standardizes approaches across member states, improving comparability of risk assessments.
Expected institutional follow-up EFSA will likely integrate this weighting method into its ongoing HPAI risk assessments. The European Commission and member states may use the results to refine surveillance programs and biosecurity recommendations. No immediate regulatory changes are expected, as the report is a technical input for further scientific work.
← Atlas › News › Agri-food