The European Commission on 3 June 2026 presented the European Semester Spring Package, a set of country-specific recommendations aimed at strengthening competitiveness, improving skills, and ensuring fiscal stability amid geopolitical uncertainty. The package, unveiled by Executive Vice-President Roxana Mînzatu and Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, marks a shift toward a 'people-oriented' approach to competitiveness, with a new emphasis on human capital and social fairness.
Mînzatu highlighted that 77% of companies cite skills shortages as the main barrier to investment, while up to 1.3 million jobs in Europe are at risk due to the Middle East conflict, particularly in energy-intensive industries. The Commission's Social Convergence Framework shows three more Member States facing risks of social imbalances compared to last year. The Employment Guidelines focus on three priorities: investing in people through skills, improving working conditions to address labour shortages, and tackling the cost-of-living crisis via the Anti-Poverty Strategy presented a month ago.
A key novelty is the integration of human capital into the Semester cycle. The Commission issued an EU-wide Recommendation on Human Capital in the Autumn Package and now applies it to Member States, targeting six areas: basic skills, STEM, vocational education and training (VET), teachers, skills portability, and skills intelligence. Fifteen Member States received recommendations on STEM, ten on VET, and four on skills intelligence systems. A European Skills Intelligence Observatory, set up to gather data on skills supply and demand, has begun research work ahead of its public launch planned for 2027.
Commissioner Dombrovskis outlined four categories of recommendations: ensuring fiscal stability, closing the innovation gap, improving energy security and affordability, and strengthening skills and social fairness. On fiscal policy, the Commission assessed that all ten Member States under the excessive deficit procedure took effective action last year, so no further steps are needed at this stage. However, Hungary faces a risk of non-compliance this year, which could lead to stepped-up procedures. Malta's deficit fell below 3% of GDP in 2025, prompting a recommendation to end its excessive deficit procedure. For Bulgaria, the Commission will propose opening an excessive deficit procedure as the deficit criterion is no longer met when excluding defence spending under the national escape clause.
The package also addresses energy security: measures to strengthen structural resilience and accelerate the fossil fuel transition may benefit from fiscal flexibility. Upon request, a dedicated annual cap of 0.3% of GDP (cumulative 0.6% over 2026-2028) could apply for energy support measures, within the existing 1.5% of GDP cap for the national escape clause. For Member States already using full flexibility for defence, this could allow exceeding 1.5% subject to a sustainability assessment.
On macroeconomic imbalances, in-depth reviews of seven Member States found that Greece, the Netherlands, and Sweden no longer experience imbalances; Italy, Hungary, and Slovakia have imbalances; and Romania continues to have excessive imbalances. The Commission calls on Member States to translate recommendations into policy action without delay, stressing that competitiveness and fiscal sustainability go hand-in-hand.
The package includes recommendations for Eastern border regions addressing socio-economic, preparedness, and security challenges. Dombrovskis warned that failing to act would lead to 'a diminished Europe, shaped by global events rather than shaping them.' The Commission will reassess compliance in the Autumn Package.