A Commission staff working document published on 14 July 2026 analyses EU demographic trends, projecting that the EU population will peak at 453.3 million in 2029 before declining to 398.8 million by 2100, with the median age rising from 44.9 years in 2025 to 51.5 years by 2100. The document warns of irreversible ageing and shrinking of the working-age population, with the old-age dependency ratio expected to exceed 50 in 13 Member States by 2050 and above 60 EU-wide by 2100.
The analysis covers all Member States and highlights that the EU population reached 450.6 million in 2025. Life expectancy at birth in 2024 was 81.5 years (84.1 for women, 78.9 for men), projected to exceed 90 for women and 86 for men by 2100. Live births fell to 3.55 million in 2024, with a crude birth rate of 7.9, and the total fertility rate has remained below the replacement level of 2.1 for decades.
the Demography Toolbox adopted on 11 October 2023, the European Affordable Housing Plan of December 2025, the Intergenerational Fairness Strategy of March 2026, and the Anti-Poverty Strategy of May 2026. These policies aim to address labour market shortages, pension sustainability, healthcare demand, housing affordability, and regional cohesion.
The working document does not propose new legislation but serves as an evidence base for future policy coordination. It underscores the need for Member States to adapt social protection systems, promote active ageing, and support regions most affected by population decline. The Commission is expected to use the findings to inform upcoming proposals on labour mobility, digital skills, and long-term care.