A European Commission staff working document published on 14 July 2026 by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) projects that the EU population will peak at 453.3 million in 2029 and then decline to 398.8 million by 2100, driven by persistently low fertility and an ageing population. The document, SWD(2026)193, warns that the demographic shift will affect all Member States and sectors from labour markets to healthcare, with the working-age base shrinking and dependency ratios rising sharply.
The EU population stood at 450.6 million on 1 January 2025, up from 449.5 million a year earlier, with net migration offsetting negative natural change (more deaths than births) that has persisted since 2012. The median age reached 44.9 years in 2025 and is projected to hit 51.5 years by 2100, while the share of people aged 65 and over will grow from one-fifth to nearly one-third by mid-century. Life expectancy at birth was 81.5 years in 2024 (84.1 for women, 78.9 for men) and is projected to exceed 90 years for women and 86 for men by 2100. The total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.34 in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1, and live births dropped to 3.55 million in 2024 from 4.07 million in 2020. The old-age dependency ratio (people aged 65+ per 100 working-age people) was 34 in 2025, projected to exceed 50 in 13 Member States by 2050 and reach above 60 EU-wide by 2100.
The document builds on several recent EU initiatives, including the Demography Toolbox adopted on 11 October 2023, the European Affordable Housing Plan of December 2025, the Intergenerational Fairness Strategy of March 2026, and the Anti-Poverty Strategy and Communication on breaking child poverty, both from May 2026. The JRC analysis underscores that the demographic transformation is irreversible in the medium term, requiring coordinated policy action across all Member States to adapt labour markets, pension systems, healthcare, and housing to an older and smaller population.
EU producers face a shrinking and ageing workforce, potentially increasing labour costs and prompting automation. EU consumers may experience higher taxes and reduced public services as the working-age population shrinks relative to dependents. National authorities will need to reform pension and healthcare systems to cope with rising old-age dependency ratios. EU regulatory bodies, including the Commission, will likely face pressure to propose further measures on migration, labour market integration, and intergenerational fairness to mitigate the economic and social consequences of demographic decline.
The working document is expected to inform upcoming Commission proposals on demography-related policies, with the European Parliament and Council likely to debate the implications for the EU's long-term budget, cohesion policy, and social agenda.